Via Hearthstone: http://ift.tt/2oJhhCm
Well, this is crazy.
I hit the official Blizzard forums to ask what was going on with the high number of duplicate cards I was getting from the Un’Goro card packs, because I kept getting the Volcanosaur card every 3 or 4 packs fairly consistently.
In the grand scheme of things, it didn’t bother me that much because I can always just collect the dust. However, I figured I would report it and get some sort of official response, which could have been as simple as, "Just bad luck I guess shrugs".
I was just looking for some confirmation that this isn’t something that is known that they are working on, so I didn’t devalue my other packs by opening them now if there was a known problem. No whining, no requests for free card packs, no insults or anger, just genuine curiosity.
Well get this.. every time I posted the text below it has been deleted from the Blizzard forums:
Title: Journey to Un'Goro Pack Bug? Howdy all, I have opened 20 of the 50 packs from the Un'goro prepurchase this afternoon and already collected 6 duplicates of the Volcanosaur card - http://ift.tt/2oGulIF. Getting the same rare Volcanosaur every 1 in 4 packs is strangely reminiscent of the tri-class card pack issue with Mean Streets of Gadgetzan. To make sure I wasn't just seeing things, I did some math to calculate what the odds would be of getting the same rare every 4 packs. The probability P of getting at least one of a certain card from opening N packs, where m is the number of cards with the same rarity as the desired card and r is the average pack distance between cards of the desired rarity (r=0.88 for rares), is: P = 1 - ((r*m-1)/(r*m))^N For a longer explanation of the math see here: http://ift.tt/2p7jN1z Un'Goro has 36 unique rares (m=36) and I opened roughly 20 packs and discovered the same rare every 3 to 4 packs (N=4, note: the real N is 20/6 = 3.333... so I'm being generous here rounding up to 4). That means the chance of getting a single desired rare in 4 packs is: 1 - ((.88*36-1) / (.88*36))^4 = 0.12 or ~12%. You can check the numbers for yourself using Wolfram Alpha. http://ift.tt/2oGvobJ Now we can ask the question what would be the odds of doing this every other consecutive 4 packs back to back. Put another way, what are the chances of winning 12% odds 4 times in a row? 12% multiplied by itself 4 times gives us 0.02% odds of this happening. This is effectively 1 in 5,000 odds to get the same rare card every 4 packs or 1 in 10,000 for every 3 packs. I find it curious that the Volcanosaur given away yesterday is showing up so frequently today in the preorder packs. If it were any other card I wouldn't have bothered to look more closely. Perhaps it is a bug from yesterday's daily quest? Something seems off here. Any ideas or just bad luck?
I can’t imagine for the life of me why this would be repeatedly deleted.